Morecambe 1–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Morecambe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colchester

A. Phillips 69'

F. Nouble 35'

1/11/2020

League Two · Round 27Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Morecambe40%

×Draw27%

Colchester33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Morecambe

1.29

Colchester

1.15

Morecambe creates 12% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 159 away

1.24

creates per match

0.96

1.34

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Morecambe

1.24

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

Morecambe

1.34

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

67%

Morecambe or Colchester

73%

Draw or Colchester

60%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

18%

Colchester wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

72%

Morecambe 2+ goals

37%

Morecambe 3+ goals

14%

Colchester 1+ goals

68%

Colchester 2+ goals

32%

Colchester 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

55%

Colchester (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Colchester attack 0.96 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Morecambe scores more

40%

level

27%

Colchester scores more

33%

Morecambe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

A. Phillips

Morecambe · M

7.6

Match Events

21'

Ryan Clampin

35'

F. Nouble↳ R. Clampin

60'

Kwame Poku

67'

J. O'Sullivan← J. Slew

69'

A. Phillips↳ J. O'Sullivan

72'

L. Gambin← C. Harriott

73'

Toumani Diagouraga

75'

Ryan Jackson

80'

A. Leitch-Smith← C. Stockton

82'

J. Ogedi-Uzokwe← K. Poku

83'

Ryan Jackson

83'

Ryan Jackson

85'

T. Lapslie← L. Gambin

90'

Harry Pell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MorecambeColchester

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots9

3Corners6

12Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target4

9Off Target1

2Blocked4

8Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

357Total Passes361

245Accurate Passes244

69%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2