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Morecambe vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
L. McAlinden 20'
3/27/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 38Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Morecambe39%
×Draw27%
Cheltenham34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.31
Cheltenham
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 95 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.24
Cheltenham
1.06

allows per match

Morecambe
1.34
Cheltenham
1.38

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
66%
Morecambe or Cheltenham
73%
Draw or Cheltenham
61%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
18%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
73%
Morecambe 2+ goals
38%
Morecambe 3+ goals
14%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
70%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
34%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
54%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Morecambe scores more
39%
level
27%
Cheltenham scores more
34%

Morecambe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
K. LetherenMorecambeMorecambe · G
8.5

Match Events

20'
L. McAlinden
50'
F. Azaz← M. Blair
66'
R. Cooney← L. McAlinden
68'
S. Hendrie← H. Davis
78'
A. Williams← C. Wright
83'
I. Vassilev← L. Freestone
83'
E. Chapman← A. May
90+1'
B. Pringle← J. OSullivan

Possession

34%Morecambe

Shots

7Morecambe

Pass accuracy

40%Morecambe

Statistics

MorecambeCheltenham
Overview
34%Possession66%
7Total Shots20
3Corners5
6Fouls7
Shots
7Total Shots20
1On Target6
5Off Target8
1Blocked6
6Inside Box12
1Outside Box8
Passing
34%Possession66%
260Total Passes470
125Accurate Passes334
48%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
6Saves0
Discipline
6Fouls7
5Offsides1

League Two: Morecambe 1–0 Cheltenham

Morecambe beat Cheltenham 1-0 in League Two on March 27, 2021.

Goals: L. McAlinden (20').

Cheltenham controlled possession (66%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Globe Arena in Morecambe, Lancashire.