Moratalaz 0–2 RSD Alcalá: Result & Stats

Moratalaz

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

RSD Alcalá

12/1/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Moratalaz36%

×Draw27%

RSD Alcalá37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoratalazExpected goals in this matchRSD Alcalá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.26

Moratalaz

1.25

RSD Alcalá

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 99 away

1.31

creates per match

1.23

1.29

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Moratalaz

1.31

RSD Alcalá

1.23

allows per match

Moratalaz

1.29

RSD Alcalá

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

RSD Alcalá →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw

63%

Moratalaz or RSD Alcalá

73%

Draw or RSD Alcalá

64%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+

16%

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals

71%

Moratalaz 2+ goals

36%

Moratalaz 3+ goals

13%

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals

72%

RSD Alcalá 2+ goals

36%

RSD Alcalá 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)

50%

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Moratalaz scores more

36%

level

27%

RSD Alcalá scores more

37%

RSD Alcalá at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff