Moralo 4–1 Villafranca: Result & Stats

Moralo

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Villafranca

1/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 15Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Moralo50%

×Draw26%

Villafranca24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoraloExpected goals in this matchVillafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.95

Moralo

1.50

Villafranca

0.95

Moralo creates 58% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 81 away

1.72

creates per match

1.16

0.75

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Moralo

1.72

Villafranca

1.16

allows per match

Moralo

0.75

Villafranca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moralo+0.00on par

Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moralo ↓

Villafranca →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Moralo or draw

76%

Moralo or Villafranca

74%

Draw or Villafranca

50%

Winning margin

Moralo wins by 2+

25%

Villafranca wins by 2+

Team goals

Moralo 1+ goals

78%

Moralo 2+ goals

44%

Moralo 3+ goals

19%

Villafranca 1+ goals

61%

Villafranca 2+ goals

25%

Villafranca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Moralo (draw refunded)

68%

Villafranca (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Moralo at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.75 · 109 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Moralo attack 1.72 + Villafranca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Villafranca attack 1.16 + Moralo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Moralo scores more

50%

level

26%

Villafranca scores more

24%

Moralo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff