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Moralo vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Moralo
Moralo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
9/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2Ciudad Deportiva Talayuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Moralo64%
×Draw21%
Atlético Pueblonuevo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moralo
1.92
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.80

Moralo creates 140% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 66 away

creates per match

Moralo
1.72
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Moralo
0.75
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Moralo+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moralo ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Moralo or draw
85%
Moralo or Atlético Pueblonuevo
79%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
36%

Winning margin

Moralo wins by 2+
38%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Moralo 1+ goals
85%
Moralo 2+ goals
57%
Moralo 3+ goals
30%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
55%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Moralo (draw refunded)
81%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moralo at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.75 · 109 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moralo attack 1.72 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.92

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Moralo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Moralo scores more
64%
level
21%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
15%

Moralo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Moralo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moralo 0 – 2 Atlético Pueblonuevo

Atlético Pueblonuevo beat Moralo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Talayuela in Talayuela.