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Monza U20 vs Roma U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Monza U20
Monza U20
Preview
10:00
Roma U20
Roma U20
1/30/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 22Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi
Big match
49%
Roma U20
model favours
28%23%49%

Monza U20 sit 15, Roma U20 4 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Monza U2028%
×Draw23%
Roma U2049%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza U20
1.31
Roma U20
1.82

Roma U20 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Monza U20
1.39
Roma U20
2.26

allows per match

Monza U20
1.39
Roma U20
1.24

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par
Roma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Roma U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw
51%
Monza U20 or Roma U20
77%
Draw or Roma U20
72%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+
12%
Roma U20 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals
73%
Monza U20 2+ goals
38%
Monza U20 3+ goals
14%
Roma U20 1+ goals
84%
Roma U20 2+ goals
54%
Roma U20 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)
36%
Roma U20 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Roma U20 away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Roma U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Roma U20 attack 2.26 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Monza U20 scores more
28%
level
23%
Roma U20 scores more
49%

Roma U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
DLDLL
U20
LWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Monza U20 vs Roma U20 — Match Preview

Monza U20 face Roma U20 on January 30, 2027 in this Campionato Primavera - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Monza U20 host Roma U20 at Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.