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Monza U20 vs Milan U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Monza U20
Monza U20
Preview
10:00
Milan U20
Milan U20
10/31/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 9Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi
37%
Monza U20
model favours
37%26%37%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Monza U2037%
×Draw26%
Milan U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza U20
1.38
Milan U20
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Monza U20
1.39
Milan U20
1.38

allows per match

Monza U20
1.39
Milan U20
1.38

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par
Milan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Milan U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw
63%
Monza U20 or Milan U20
74%
Draw or Milan U20
63%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+
17%
Milan U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals
75%
Monza U20 2+ goals
40%
Monza U20 3+ goals
16%
Milan U20 1+ goals
75%
Milan U20 2+ goals
40%
Milan U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Milan U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Milan U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Milan U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Milan U20 attack 1.38 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Monza U20 scores more
37%
level
26%
Milan U20 scores more
37%

Monza U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
DLDLL
U20
DLDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Monza U20 face Milan U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Monza U20 hosting Milan U20. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Monza U20 host Milan U20 at Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.