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Monza U20 vs Empoli U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Monza U20
Monza U20
Preview
10:00
Empoli U20
Empoli U20
12/16/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 15Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi
48%
Monza U20
model favours
48%24%28%
1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Monza U2048%
×Draw24%
Empoli U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza U20
1.69
Empoli U20
1.25

Monza U20 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

Monza U20
1.39
Empoli U20
1.10

allows per match

Monza U20
1.39
Empoli U20
2.00

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par
Empoli U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Empoli U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw
72%
Monza U20 or Empoli U20
76%
Draw or Empoli U20
52%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+
25%
Empoli U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals
82%
Monza U20 2+ goals
50%
Monza U20 3+ goals
24%
Empoli U20 1+ goals
71%
Empoli U20 2+ goals
36%
Empoli U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Empoli U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Empoli U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Empoli U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Empoli U20 attack 1.10 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Monza U20 scores more
48%
level
24%
Empoli U20 scores more
28%

Monza U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
DLDLL
U20
LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Monza U20 host Empoli U20

December 16, 2026: Monza U20 take on Empoli U20 in Campionato Primavera - 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Monza U20 host Empoli U20 at Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.