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Monza U20 vs Bologna U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Monza U20
Monza U20
Preview
10:00
Bologna U20
Bologna U20
1/23/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 21Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi
36%
Monza U20
model favours
36%27%36%

Their last 4 meetings averaged 4.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Monza U2036%
×Draw27%
Bologna U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monza U20
1.25
Bologna U20
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 40 away

creates per match

Monza U20
1.39
Bologna U20
1.10

allows per match

Monza U20
1.39
Bologna U20
1.10

finishing

Monza U20+0.00on par
Bologna U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monza U20 ↓

Bologna U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Monza U20 or draw
64%
Monza U20 or Bologna U20
73%
Draw or Bologna U20
64%

Winning margin

Monza U20 wins by 2+
16%
Bologna U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Monza U20 1+ goals
71%
Monza U20 2+ goals
36%
Monza U20 3+ goals
13%
Bologna U20 1+ goals
71%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
36%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Monza U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monza U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Bologna U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monza U20 attack 1.39 + Bologna U20 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bologna U20 attack 1.10 + Monza U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Monza U20 scores more
36%
level
27%
Bologna U20 scores more
36%

Monza U20 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Monza U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Monza U20 sit 15, Bologna U20 5 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DLDLL
U20
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Monza U20 host Bologna U20

January 23, 2027: Monza U20 take on Bologna U20 in Campionato Primavera - 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Monza U20 host Bologna U20 at Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.