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Montrose vs Spartans — League Cup 2026

Montrose
Montrose
Preview
14:00
Spartans
Spartans
7/25/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageLinks Park
44%
Montrose
model favours
44%25%31%

Montrose have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Montrose44%
×Draw25%
Spartans31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montrose
1.54
Spartans
1.27

Montrose creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Montrose
1.07
Spartans
1.11

allows per match

Montrose
1.43
Spartans
2.00

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par
Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Spartans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Montrose or draw
69%
Montrose or Spartans
75%
Draw or Spartans
56%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+
22%
Spartans wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals
79%
Montrose 2+ goals
45%
Montrose 3+ goals
20%
Spartans 1+ goals
72%
Spartans 2+ goals
36%
Spartans 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)
58%
Spartans (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Spartans away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 1.07 + Spartans defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Spartans attack 1.11 + Montrose defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Montrose scores more
44%
level
25%
Spartans scores more
31%

Montrose at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Spartans score first in only 27% of matches
  • Montrose score first in only 35% of matches
  • Montrose sit 4, Spartans 35 in the table
  • 65% of Montrose’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Montrose win 73% of their home games
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Montrose
WWWWL
Spartans
LLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Montrose vs Spartans — Match Preview

Montrose face Spartans on July 25, 2026 in this League Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Montrose host Spartans at Links Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.