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Montrose vs Dundee United II — League #182 2026

Montrose
Montrose
Preview
18:45
Dundee United II
Dundee United II
10/13/2026League #182League #182 · Group Stage - 6Links Park
70%
Montrose
model favours
70%16%14%

Montrose have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Montrose70%
×Draw16%
Dundee United II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montrose
2.75
Dundee United II
1.17

Montrose creates 135% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Montrose
2.50
Dundee United II
0.83

allows per match

Montrose
1.50
Dundee United II
3.00

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par
Dundee United II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Dundee United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Montrose or draw
86%
Montrose or Dundee United II
84%
Draw or Dundee United II
30%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+
49%
Dundee United II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals
93%
Montrose 2+ goals
75%
Montrose 3+ goals
51%
Dundee United II 1+ goals
69%
Dundee United II 2+ goals
33%
Dundee United II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)
83%
Dundee United II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Dundee United II away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 2.50 + Dundee United II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Dundee United II attack 0.83 + Montrose defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Montrose scores more
70%
level
16%
Dundee United II scores more
14%

Montrose at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Montrose score first in only 35% of matches
  • 65% of Montrose’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Montrose win 73% of their home games
  • Montrose sit 2, Dundee United II 27 in the table
  • Montrose and Dundee United II have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Montrose
WWWWL
II
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Montrose host Dundee United II

October 13, 2026: Montrose take on Dundee United II in League #182. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Montrose host Dundee United II at Links Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.