Montreal Roses W 0–2 AFC Toronto W: Result & Stats

Montreal Roses W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Toronto W

E. Regan 73'

E. Okoronkwo 35'

5/22/2025

Northern Super League · Round 2Stade Boréale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Montreal Roses W29%

×Draw27%

AFC Toronto W44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montreal Roses WExpected goals in this matchAFC Toronto W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.40

Montreal Roses W

1.08

AFC Toronto W

1.40

AFC Toronto W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

1.32

creates per match

1.75

1.05

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Montreal Roses W

1.32

AFC Toronto W

1.75

allows per match

Montreal Roses W

1.05

AFC Toronto W

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montreal Roses W+0.00on par

AFC Toronto W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montreal Roses W ↓

AFC Toronto W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Montreal Roses W or draw

56%

Montreal Roses W or AFC Toronto W

73%

Draw or AFC Toronto W

71%

Winning margin

Montreal Roses W wins by 2+

11%

AFC Toronto W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Montreal Roses W 1+ goals

66%

Montreal Roses W 2+ goals

29%

Montreal Roses W 3+ goals

10%

AFC Toronto W 1+ goals

75%

AFC Toronto W 2+ goals

41%

AFC Toronto W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Montreal Roses W (draw refunded)

40%

AFC Toronto W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montreal Roses W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

AFC Toronto W away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montreal Roses W attack 1.32 + AFC Toronto W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

AFC Toronto W attack 1.75 + Montreal Roses W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Montreal Roses W scores more

29%

level

27%

AFC Toronto W scores more

44%

AFC Toronto W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AFC Toronto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

E. Okoronkwo↳ S. Ashouri

69'

F. Roy← C. Bilbault

69'

L. Schenk← L. Thibault

73'

E. Regan↳ N. Small

77'

C. Monyard← N. Paquin

81'

M. Bouchard← A. Hess

82'

M. Lachance← J. Smith

88'

N. Katembo← A. Kizaki

90+2'

A. Lantaigne← E. Okoronkwo

Montreal

AFC

21

3

19

14

94

8

⚽

Regan

13

▼

Kizaki

31

Barnett

4

A

Small

12

A

Ashouri

23

⚽

▼

Okoronkwo

1

Karpenko

2

Cappadona

17

▼

Smith

3

Whitaker

5

Leas

18

▼

Bilbault

6

▼

Hess

19

▼

Thibault

99

Abdu

20

Sauvé

7

▼

Paquin

Manager: R. Rositoiu

69'▲F. Roy←▼C. Bilbault

69'▲L. Schenk←▼L. Thibault

77'▲C. Monyard←▼N. Paquin

81'▲M. Bouchard←▼A. Hess

82'▲M. Lachance←▼J. Smith

Montreal Roses W substitutes

23Roy16Schenk14Monyard8Bouchard21Lachance26Lambert37Mokbel4Hill22Laroche

Manager: M. Milanović

88'▲N. Katembo←▼A. Kizaki

90+2'▲A. Lantaigne←▼E. Okoronkwo

AFC Toronto W substitutes

17Katembo2Lantaigne18Perez60Busby5Soto6Hansen22Uddenberg20Walk