Monterrey 1–1 Leon: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monterrey

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leon

R. Funes Mori 80' (pen)

V. Dávila 42'

3/11/2021

Liga MX · Clausura - 3Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Monterrey49%

×Draw25%

Leon27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchLeon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.13

Monterrey

1.62

Leon

1.13

Monterrey creates 43% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 145 away

1.76

creates per match

1.26

0.99

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Monterrey

1.76

Leon

1.26

allows per match

Monterrey

0.99

Leon

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Leon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

73%

Monterrey or Leon

75%

Draw or Leon

51%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

25%

Leon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

80%

Monterrey 2+ goals

48%

Monterrey 3+ goals

22%

Leon 1+ goals

68%

Leon 2+ goals

31%

Leon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

65%

Leon (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Leon away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.48 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.76 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.62

Leon attack 1.26 + Monterrey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Monterrey scores more

49%

level

25%

Leon scores more

27%

Monterrey at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Layún

Monterrey · D

7.5

Match Events

17'

Arturo González

23'

David RamírezGoal cancelled

39'

Joel Campbell

42'

V. Dávila↳ D. Ramírez

50'

César Montes

58'

A. Loba← D. Pabón

59'

A. Mosquera← V. Dávila

64'

C. Ortiz← M. Kranevitter

64'

A. Hurtado← A. González

71'

Á. Mena← F. Navarro

71'

J. Rodríguez← S. Colombatto

80'

R. Funes MoriPenalty

86'

L. Montes← R. González

87'

J. Gónzalez← C. Rodríguez

90'

Rogelio Funes Mori

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonterreyLeon

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots8

1Corners7

14Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots8

2On Target3

7Off Target2

1Blocked3

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

377Total Passes454

311Accurate Passes383

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4