Monterrey 1–1 Club America: Result & Stats

Monterrey

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Club America

12/16/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - FinalEstadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 157+ matches

Monterrey41%

×Draw26%

Club America33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.27

Monterrey

1.45

Club America

1.27

Monterrey creates 14% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 163 away

1.76

creates per match

1.55

0.98

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Monterrey

1.76

Club America

1.55

allows per match

Monterrey

0.98

Club America

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

Club America+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

67%

Monterrey or Club America

74%

Draw or Club America

59%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

20%

Club America wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

77%

Monterrey 2+ goals

42%

Monterrey 3+ goals

18%

Club America 1+ goals

72%

Club America 2+ goals

36%

Club America 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

56%

Club America (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.98 · 157 matches

Club America away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.76 + Club America defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.45

Club America attack 1.55 + Monterrey defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Monterrey scores more

41%

level

26%

Club America scores more

33%

Monterrey at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff