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Monterey Bay vs FC Tulsa — USL Championship 2018

Monterey Bay
Monterey Bay
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
6/1/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 15Cardinale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Monterey Bay45%
×Draw25%
FC Tulsa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterey Bay
1.54
FC Tulsa
1.21

Monterey Bay creates 27% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 130 away

creates per match

Monterey Bay
1.28
FC Tulsa
1.19

allows per match

Monterey Bay
1.24
FC Tulsa
1.81

finishing

Monterey Bay+0.00on par
FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterey Bay ↓

FC Tulsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Monterey Bay or draw
70%
Monterey Bay or FC Tulsa
75%
Draw or FC Tulsa
55%

Winning margin

Monterey Bay wins by 2+
23%
FC Tulsa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Monterey Bay 1+ goals
79%
Monterey Bay 2+ goals
45%
Monterey Bay 3+ goals
20%
FC Tulsa 1+ goals
70%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
34%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Monterey Bay (draw refunded)
60%
FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterey Bay at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterey Bay attack 1.28 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + Monterey Bay defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Monterey Bay scores more
45%
level
25%
FC Tulsa scores more
30%

Monterey Bay at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Monterey Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monterey Bay vs FC Tulsa

Monterey Bay and FC Tulsa drew 0-0 in USL Championship on June 1, 2023.

The match was played at Cardinale Stadium in Seaside, California.