Montedio Yamagata 2–2 Ventforet Kofu

Montedio Yamagata

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Ventforet Kofu

5/5/2021

J2 League · Round 12ND Soft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 166+ matches

Montedio Yamagata41%

×Draw27%

Ventforet Kofu32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montedio YamagataExpected goals in this matchVentforet Kofu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.17

Montedio Yamagata

1.36

Ventforet Kofu

1.17

Montedio Yamagata creates 16% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 166 away

1.58

creates per match

1.29

1.05

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Montedio Yamagata

1.58

Ventforet Kofu

1.29

allows per match

Montedio Yamagata

1.05

Ventforet Kofu

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montedio Yamagata ↓

Ventforet Kofu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Montedio Yamagata or draw

68%

Montedio Yamagata or Ventforet Kofu

73%

Draw or Ventforet Kofu

59%

Winning margin

Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+

19%

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals

74%

Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals

39%

Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals

16%

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

69%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

33%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)

56%

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montedio Yamagata at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.05 · 166 matches

Ventforet Kofu away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 166 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.58 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.29 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Montedio Yamagata scores more

41%

level

27%

Ventforet Kofu scores more

32%

Montedio Yamagata at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff