Montedio Yamagata 0–0 Renofa Yamaguchi

Montedio Yamagata

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Renofa Yamaguchi

9/2/2020

J2 League · Round 16ND Soft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 166+ matches

Montedio Yamagata49%

×Draw26%

Renofa Yamaguchi25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montedio YamagataExpected goals in this matchRenofa Yamaguchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.02

Montedio Yamagata

1.54

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.02

Montedio Yamagata creates 51% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 168 away

1.58

creates per match

0.98

1.05

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Montedio Yamagata

1.58

Renofa Yamaguchi

0.98

allows per match

Montedio Yamagata

1.05

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montedio Yamagata ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Montedio Yamagata or draw

75%

Montedio Yamagata or Renofa Yamaguchi

74%

Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi

51%

Winning margin

Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+

25%

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals

79%

Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals

45%

Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals

20%

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

64%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

27%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)

66%

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montedio Yamagata at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.05 · 166 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.58 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Montedio Yamagata scores more

49%

level

26%

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

25%

Montedio Yamagata at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff