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Montedio Yamagata vs Kyoto Sanga — J2 League 2018

Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
4/15/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 9ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendō (Tendo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Montedio Yamagata43%
×Draw27%
Kyoto Sanga30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montedio Yamagata
1.40
Kyoto Sanga
1.12

Montedio Yamagata creates 25% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 89 away

creates per match

Montedio Yamagata
1.58
Kyoto Sanga
1.19

allows per match

Montedio Yamagata
1.05
Kyoto Sanga
1.21

finishing

Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montedio Yamagata ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Montedio Yamagata or draw
70%
Montedio Yamagata or Kyoto Sanga
73%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
57%

Winning margin

Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+
21%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals
75%
Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals
41%
Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals
17%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
67%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
31%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)
59%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montedio Yamagata at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.05 · 166 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.58 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.19 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Montedio Yamagata scores more
43%
level
27%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
30%

Montedio Yamagata at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montedio Yamagata vs Kyoto Sanga

Montedio Yamagata beat Kyoto Sanga 1-0 in J2 League on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendō (Tendo)).