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Montebelluna vs Tamai — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montebelluna
Montebelluna
PST
13:30
Tamai
Tamai
3/29/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 33Stadio San Vigilio (Montebelluna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Montebelluna47%
×Draw27%
Tamai26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montebelluna
1.44
Tamai
1.00

Montebelluna creates 44% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 13 away

creates per match

Montebelluna
1.18
Tamai
0.54

allows per match

Montebelluna
1.46
Tamai
1.69

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par
Tamai+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Tamai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw
74%
Montebelluna or Tamai
73%
Draw or Tamai
53%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+
23%
Tamai wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals
76%
Montebelluna 2+ goals
42%
Montebelluna 3+ goals
18%
Tamai 1+ goals
63%
Tamai 2+ goals
26%
Tamai 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)
64%
Tamai (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Tamai away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Tamai defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tamai attack 0.54 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Montebelluna scores more
47%
level
27%
Tamai scores more
26%

Montebelluna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Montebelluna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Montebelluna host Tamai

March 29, 2020: Montebelluna take on Tamai in Serie D - Girone C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Montebelluna host Tamai at Stadio San Vigilio (Montebelluna).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.