Montebelluna 0–1 Mestre: Result & Stats

Montebelluna

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mestre

12/12/2021

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Stadio San Vigilio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Montebelluna36%

×Draw28%

Mestre36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontebellunaExpected goals in this matchMestre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.20

Montebelluna

1.19

Mestre

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 101 away

1.18

creates per match

0.94

1.46

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Montebelluna

1.18

Mestre

0.94

allows per match

Montebelluna

1.46

Mestre

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montebelluna+0.00on par

Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montebelluna ↓

Mestre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Montebelluna or draw

64%

Montebelluna or Mestre

72%

Draw or Mestre

64%

Winning margin

Montebelluna wins by 2+

15%

Mestre wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Montebelluna 1+ goals

70%

Montebelluna 2+ goals

33%

Montebelluna 3+ goals

12%

Mestre 1+ goals

70%

Mestre 2+ goals

34%

Mestre 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Montebelluna (draw refunded)

50%

Mestre (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montebelluna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montebelluna attack 1.18 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mestre attack 0.94 + Montebelluna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Montebelluna scores more

36%

level

28%

Mestre scores more

36%

Montebelluna at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Montebelluna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff