Montalegre vs São João Ver — Liga 3 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 28+ matches
Montalegre39%
São João Ver35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 28 home / 56 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Montalegre ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Montalegre at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches
São João Ver away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Montalegre attack 1.21 + São João Ver defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32
São João Ver attack 1.05 + Montalegre defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.24
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Montalegre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Montalegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Felgueiras 1932
Oliveirense
SC Braga B
Guimaraes B
Canelas 2010
Sanjoanense
Lusitânia LourosaSão João Ver
AnadiaMontalegre
Fafe
Pevidem
União de Leiria
Alverca
Torreense
Vitoria Setubal
Amora
Real
Caldas
Sporting CP B
Cova De Piedade
Oliveira Hospital
União Santarém
Oriental DragonIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Montalegre host São João Ver on Sunday, 10 April 2022 at 14:00. The match is part of the Liga 3 2021/2022 season.
Montalegre 3 – 2 São João Ver
Montalegre beat São João Ver 3-2 in Liga 3 on April 10, 2022.
The match was played at Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira in Montalegre.