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Monopoli U19 vs Salernitana U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Monopoli U19
Monopoli U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Salernitana U19
Salernitana U19
12/8/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 11Stadio Antonio Antonucci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Monopoli U1945%
×Draw24%
Salernitana U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monopoli U19
1.62
Salernitana U19
1.31

Monopoli U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 84 away

creates per match

Monopoli U19
1.05
Salernitana U19
1.10

allows per match

Monopoli U19
1.52
Salernitana U19
2.18

finishing

Monopoli U19+0.00on par
Salernitana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monopoli U19 ↓

Salernitana U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Monopoli U19 or draw
69%
Monopoli U19 or Salernitana U19
76%
Draw or Salernitana U19
55%

Winning margin

Monopoli U19 wins by 2+
23%
Salernitana U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Monopoli U19 1+ goals
80%
Monopoli U19 2+ goals
48%
Monopoli U19 3+ goals
22%
Salernitana U19 1+ goals
73%
Salernitana U19 2+ goals
38%
Salernitana U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Salernitana U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monopoli U19 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Salernitana U19 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.18 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monopoli U19 attack 1.05 + Salernitana U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.62

Salernitana U19 attack 1.10 + Monopoli U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Monopoli U19 scores more
45%
level
24%
Salernitana U19 scores more
31%

Monopoli U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Monopoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monopoli U19 vs Salernitana U19

Monopoli U19 and Salernitana U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Antonio Antonucci in Bitetto.