Monopoli U19 3–2 Pescara U19: Result & Stats

Monopoli U19

FT

3 – 2

Pescara U19

9/23/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 2Stadio Comunale Vito Curlo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Monopoli U1932%

×Draw24%

Pescara U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monopoli U19Expected goals in this matchPescara U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.64

Monopoli U19

1.38

Pescara U19

1.64

Pescara U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 72 away

1.05

creates per match

1.75

1.52

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Monopoli U19

1.05

Pescara U19

1.75

allows per match

Monopoli U19

1.52

Pescara U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monopoli U19+0.00on par

Pescara U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monopoli U19 ↓

Pescara U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Monopoli U19 or draw

56%

Monopoli U19 or Pescara U19

76%

Draw or Pescara U19

68%

Winning margin

Monopoli U19 wins by 2+

14%

Pescara U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Monopoli U19 1+ goals

75%

Monopoli U19 2+ goals

40%

Monopoli U19 3+ goals

16%

Pescara U19 1+ goals

81%

Pescara U19 2+ goals

49%

Pescara U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Pescara U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monopoli U19 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Pescara U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monopoli U19 attack 1.05 + Pescara U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pescara U19 attack 1.75 + Monopoli U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Monopoli U19 scores more

32%

level

24%

Pescara U19 scores more

44%

Pescara U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pescara U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff