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Talleres Remedios vs Defensores Unidos — Primera C 2014

Talleres Remedios
Talleres Remedios
FT
3 – 1
Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos
10/20/2014Primera CPrimera C · Round 13Estadio de Talleres de Remedios de Escalada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Talleres Remedios63%
×Draw22%
Defensores Unidos16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talleres Remedios
1.92
Defensores Unidos
0.83

Talleres Remedios creates 131% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Talleres Remedios
2.20
Defensores Unidos
0.86

allows per match

Talleres Remedios
0.80
Defensores Unidos
1.64

finishing

Talleres Remedios+0.00on par
Defensores Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Remedios ↓

Defensores Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Talleres Remedios or draw
84%
Talleres Remedios or Defensores Unidos
78%
Draw or Defensores Unidos
37%

Winning margin

Talleres Remedios wins by 2+
38%
Defensores Unidos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Talleres Remedios 1+ goals
85%
Talleres Remedios 2+ goals
57%
Talleres Remedios 3+ goals
30%
Defensores Unidos 1+ goals
56%
Defensores Unidos 2+ goals
20%
Defensores Unidos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)
80%
Defensores Unidos (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Remedios at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Defensores Unidos away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Remedios attack 2.20 + Defensores Unidos defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.92

Defensores Unidos attack 0.86 + Talleres Remedios defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Talleres Remedios scores more
63%
level
22%
Defensores Unidos scores more
16%

Talleres Remedios at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Talleres Remedios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Talleres Remedios 3–1 Defensores Unidos

Talleres Remedios beat Defensores Unidos 3-1 in Primera C on October 20, 2014.

The match was played at Estadio de Talleres de Remedios de Escalada in Remedios Escalada, Provincia de Buenos Aires.