Moneni Pirates 1–1 Rangers FC: Result & Stats

Moneni Pirates

FT

1 – 1

Rangers FC

12/9/2023

Premier League · Round 8Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Moneni Pirates41%

×Draw29%

Rangers FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moneni PiratesExpected goals in this matchRangers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.98

Moneni Pirates

1.19

Rangers FC

0.98

Moneni Pirates creates 21% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 56 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

1.02

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Moneni Pirates

1.00

Rangers FC

0.93

allows per match

Moneni Pirates

1.02

Rangers FC

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moneni Pirates ↓

Rangers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Moneni Pirates or draw

70%

Moneni Pirates or Rangers FC

71%

Draw or Rangers FC

59%

Winning margin

Moneni Pirates wins by 2+

18%

Rangers FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Moneni Pirates 1+ goals

70%

Moneni Pirates 2+ goals

33%

Moneni Pirates 3+ goals

12%

Rangers FC 1+ goals

62%

Rangers FC 2+ goals

26%

Rangers FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)

57%

Rangers FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moneni Pirates at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.02 · 84 matches

Rangers FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.39 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moneni Pirates attack 1.00 + Rangers FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rangers FC attack 0.93 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Moneni Pirates scores more

41%

level

29%

Rangers FC scores more

30%

Moneni Pirates at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moneni Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff