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Mondsee vs Union St. Florian — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Mondsee
Mondsee
FT
1 – 0
Union St. Florian
Union St. Florian
8/23/2019Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 4BWT Arena Mondseeland

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Mondsee55%
×Draw22%
Union St. Florian24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mondsee
1.98
Union St. Florian
1.23

Mondsee creates 61% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 29 away

creates per match

Mondsee
1.95
Union St. Florian
1.10

allows per match

Mondsee
1.36
Union St. Florian
2.00

finishing

Mondsee+0.00on par
Union St. Florian+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondsee ↓

Union St. Florian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mondsee or draw
76%
Mondsee or Union St. Florian
78%
Draw or Union St. Florian
45%

Winning margin

Mondsee wins by 2+
32%
Union St. Florian wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mondsee 1+ goals
86%
Mondsee 2+ goals
59%
Mondsee 3+ goals
31%
Union St. Florian 1+ goals
71%
Union St. Florian 2+ goals
35%
Union St. Florian 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mondsee (draw refunded)
70%
Union St. Florian (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondsee at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Union St. Florian away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondsee attack 1.95 + Union St. Florian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Union St. Florian attack 1.10 + Mondsee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mondsee scores more
55%
level
22%
Union St. Florian scores more
24%

Mondsee at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mondsee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mondsee vs Union St. Florian

Mondsee beat Union St. Florian 1-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 23, 2019.

The match was played at BWT Arena Mondseeland in Mondsee.