Mondsee 1–2 SV Wallern: Result & Stats

Mondsee

FT

1 – 2

SV Wallern

8/14/2020

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 1BWT Arena Mondseeland

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Mondsee42%

×Draw23%

SV Wallern36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MondseeExpected goals in this matchSV Wallern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.64

Mondsee

1.79

SV Wallern

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 43 away

1.95

creates per match

1.91

1.36

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Mondsee

1.95

SV Wallern

1.91

allows per match

Mondsee

1.36

SV Wallern

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mondsee+0.00on par

SV Wallern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mondsee ↓

SV Wallern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Mondsee or draw

64%

Mondsee or SV Wallern

77%

Draw or SV Wallern

58%

Winning margin

Mondsee wins by 2+

22%

SV Wallern wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mondsee 1+ goals

83%

Mondsee 2+ goals

53%

Mondsee 3+ goals

26%

SV Wallern 1+ goals

81%

SV Wallern 2+ goals

49%

SV Wallern 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mondsee (draw refunded)

54%

SV Wallern (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mondsee at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

SV Wallern away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mondsee attack 1.95 + SV Wallern defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.79

SV Wallern attack 1.91 + Mondsee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mondsee scores more

42%

level

23%

SV Wallern scores more

36%

Mondsee at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mondsee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff