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Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Monarcas
Monarcasadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
11/16/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Monarcas48%
×Draw26%
Leones Negros UDG26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.46
Leones Negros UDG
0.99

Monarcas creates 47% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 134 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.50
Leones Negros UDG
1.04

allows per match

Monarcas
0.93
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
74%
Monarcas or Leones Negros UDG
74%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
52%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
24%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
77%
Monarcas 2+ goals
43%
Monarcas 3+ goals
18%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
63%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
26%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
65%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.93 · 112 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.50 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.04 + Monarcas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Monarcas scores more
48%
level
26%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
26%

Monarcas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG

Monarcas beat Leones Negros UDG 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón in Morelia.