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Monagas SC vs Deportivo La Guaira — Primera División 2018

Monagas SC
Monagas SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
10/6/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 30Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Monagas SC41%
×Draw27%
Deportivo La Guaira32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monagas SC
1.35
Deportivo La Guaira
1.17

Monagas SC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 148 away

creates per match

Monagas SC
1.51
Deportivo La Guaira
1.22

allows per match

Monagas SC
1.13
Deportivo La Guaira
1.20

finishing

Monagas SC+0.00on par
Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monagas SC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Monagas SC or draw
68%
Monagas SC or Deportivo La Guaira
73%
Draw or Deportivo La Guaira
59%

Winning margin

Monagas SC wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Monagas SC 1+ goals
74%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
39%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
15%
Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Monagas SC (draw refunded)
56%
Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monagas SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 134 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monagas SC attack 1.51 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Monagas SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Monagas SC scores more
41%
level
27%
Deportivo La Guaira scores more
32%

Monagas SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Monagas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Monagas SC 2–2 Deportivo La Guaira

Monagas SC and Deportivo La Guaira drew 2-2 in Primera División on October 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.