Monagas SC vs Deportivo La Guaira — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 134+ matches
Monagas SC40%
Deportivo La Guaira33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Monagas SC creates 13% more chances
Season form · 134 home / 149 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Monagas SC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Monagas SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 134 matches
Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 149 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Monagas SC attack 1.51 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35
Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.24 + Monagas SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Monagas SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Monagas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Deportivo Tachira FC
Caracas FC
Llaneros de GuanareReal Esppor Club
Trujillanos FC
Deportivo Lara
Aragua FC
Metropolitanos FC
Mineros de Guyana
Puerto Cabello
Portuguesa FC
Zamora FC
Carabobo FC
Zulia FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes Caracas
Lala FCMonagas SC
Atletico Venezuela
Deportivo AnzoateguiCarabobo FCCaracas FCMineros de GuyanaEstudiantes de Merida FCAragua FCZamora FCZulia FCAtletico VenezuelaDeportivo Tachira FCReal Esppor ClubPuerto CabelloMetropolitanos FCMonagas SCDeportivo LaraLala FCEstudiantes CaracasPortuguesa FCLlaneros de GuanareTrujillanos FCDeportivo AnzoateguiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Monagas SC host Deportivo La Guaira on Sunday, 14 November 2021 at 21:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Primera División: Monagas SC 1–0 Deportivo La Guaira
Monagas SC beat Deportivo La Guaira 1-0 in Primera División on November 14, 2021.
Goals: F. La Mantia (78' o.g.).
The match was played at Estadio Monumental de Maturín in Maturín.