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Mollerussa vs Tona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Mollerussa
Mollerussa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Tona
Tona
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mollerussa42%
×Draw25%
Tona33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mollerussa
1.48
Tona
1.27

Mollerussa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Mollerussa
1.41
Tona
1.24

allows per match

Mollerussa
1.29
Tona
1.56

finishing

Mollerussa+0.00on par
Tona+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mollerussa ↓

Tona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mollerussa or draw
67%
Mollerussa or Tona
75%
Draw or Tona
58%

Winning margin

Mollerussa wins by 2+
20%
Tona wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mollerussa 1+ goals
77%
Mollerussa 2+ goals
43%
Mollerussa 3+ goals
19%
Tona 1+ goals
72%
Tona 2+ goals
36%
Tona 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mollerussa (draw refunded)
56%
Tona (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mollerussa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Tona away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.56 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mollerussa attack 1.41 + Tona defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tona attack 1.24 + Mollerussa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mollerussa scores more
42%
level
25%
Tona scores more
33%

Mollerussa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mollerussa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mollerussa vs Tona

Tona beat Mollerussa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Mollerussa.