Moldova 1–0 andorra: Result & Stats

Moldova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

andorra

I. Armaş 8'

6/8/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Stadionul Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Moldova29%

×Draw26%

andorra46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldovaExpected goals in this matchandorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.50

Moldova

1.13

andorra

1.50

andorra creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.50

creates per match

0.00

3.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Moldova

0.50

andorra

0.00

allows per match

Moldova

3.00

andorra

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moldova+0.00on par

andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova ↓

andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Moldova or draw

54%

Moldova or andorra

74%

Draw or andorra

71%

Winning margin

Moldova wins by 2+

11%

andorra wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Moldova 1+ goals

68%

Moldova 2+ goals

31%

Moldova 3+ goals

11%

andorra 1+ goals

78%

andorra 2+ goals

44%

andorra 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Moldova (draw refunded)

38%

andorra (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

andorra away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova attack 0.50 + andorra defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

andorra attack 0.00 + Moldova defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Moldova scores more

29%

level

26%

andorra scores more

46%

andorra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

I. Armaş

Moldova · D

8.3

Match Events

8'

33'

38'

46'

46'

50'

E. Cebotaru← A. Suvorov

64'

E. Cociuc← A. Antoniuc

69'

Sergi Moreno← Marc Rebés

71'

Alexandre Martínez← Chus Rubio

79'

Cătălin Carp

80'

A. Boiciuc← V. Damaşcan

82'

Aaron Sanchez← Jordi Aláez

90'

Ildefons Lima

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Moldovaandorra

Overview

64%Possession36%

6Total Shots12

2Corners0

18Fouls17

Shots

6Total Shots12

1On Target1

1Off Target7

4Blocked4

3Inside Box5

3Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

507Total Passes274

414Accurate Passes172

82%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards–

2Offsides0