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Moldova U17 vs Belarus U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Moldova U17
Moldova U17
Preview
13:00
Belarus U17
Belarus U17
10/22/2026UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1
Big match
62%
Belarus U17
model favours
18%20%62%

Top-of-the-table clash — Moldova U17 2 vs Belarus U17 2

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Moldova U1718%
×Draw20%
Belarus U1762%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moldova U17
1.13
Belarus U17
2.23

Belarus U17 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Moldova U17
0.33
Belarus U17
1.80

allows per match

Moldova U17
2.67
Belarus U17
1.93

finishing

Moldova U17+0.00on par
Belarus U17+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moldova U17 ↓

Belarus U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Moldova U17 or draw
38%
Moldova U17 or Belarus U17
80%
Draw or Belarus U17
82%

Winning margin

Moldova U17 wins by 2+
7%
Belarus U17 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Moldova U17 1+ goals
68%
Moldova U17 2+ goals
31%
Moldova U17 3+ goals
11%
Belarus U17 1+ goals
89%
Belarus U17 2+ goals
65%
Belarus U17 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Moldova U17 (draw refunded)
23%
Belarus U17 (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moldova U17 at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Belarus U17 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moldova U17 attack 0.33 + Belarus U17 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Belarus U17 attack 1.80 + Moldova U17 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Moldova U17 scores more
18%
level
20%
Belarus U17 scores more
62%

Belarus U17 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Belarus U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U17
WDDLL
U17
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moldova U17 vs Belarus U17 — Match Preview

Moldova U17 face Belarus U17 on October 22, 2026 in this UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.