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Molde W vs Vålerenga W — Toppserien 2021

Molde W
Molde W
Preview
11:00
Vålerenga W
Vålerenga W
9/26/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 17Aker Stadion
58%
Vålerenga W
model favours
22%20%58%

Vålerenga W score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Molde W22%
×Draw20%
Vålerenga W58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde W
1.36
Vålerenga W
2.31

Vålerenga W creates 70% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 65 away

creates per match

Molde W
1.83
Vålerenga W
2.29

allows per match

Molde W
2.33
Vålerenga W
0.89

finishing

Molde W+0.00on par
Vålerenga W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde W ↓

Vålerenga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Molde W or draw
42%
Molde W or Vålerenga W
80%
Draw or Vålerenga W
78%

Winning margin

Molde W wins by 2+
9%
Vålerenga W wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Molde W 1+ goals
74%
Molde W 2+ goals
39%
Molde W 3+ goals
16%
Vålerenga W 1+ goals
90%
Vålerenga W 2+ goals
67%
Vålerenga W 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Molde W (draw refunded)
27%
Vålerenga W (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Vålerenga W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.89 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde W attack 1.83 + Vålerenga W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vålerenga W attack 2.29 + Molde W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Molde W scores more
22%
level
20%
Vålerenga W scores more
58%

Vålerenga W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vålerenga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 90% of Vålerenga W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Vålerenga W’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DLLWW
W
LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Molde W host Vålerenga W

September 26, 2026: Molde W take on Vålerenga W in Toppserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Molde W host Vålerenga W at Aker Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.