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Molde W vs Bodø / Glimt W — Toppserien 2021

Molde W
Molde W
Preview
14:00
Bodø / Glimt W
Bodø / Glimt W
10/31/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 21Aker Stadion
57%
Molde W
model favours
57%19%24%

Bodø / Glimt W score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
76%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Molde W57%
×Draw19%
Bodø / Glimt W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde W
2.46
Bodø / Glimt W
1.56

Molde W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Molde W
1.83
Bodø / Glimt W
0.80

allows per match

Molde W
2.33
Bodø / Glimt W
3.10

finishing

Molde W+0.00on par
Bodø / Glimt W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde W ↓

Bodø / Glimt W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Molde W or draw
76%
Molde W or Bodø / Glimt W
81%
Draw or Bodø / Glimt W
43%

Winning margin

Molde W wins by 2+
36%
Bodø / Glimt W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Molde W 1+ goals
91%
Molde W 2+ goals
70%
Molde W 3+ goals
44%
Bodø / Glimt W 1+ goals
79%
Bodø / Glimt W 2+ goals
46%
Bodø / Glimt W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Molde W (draw refunded)
70%
Bodø / Glimt W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Bodø / Glimt W away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde W attack 1.83 + Bodø / Glimt W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.46

Bodø / Glimt W attack 0.80 + Molde W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Molde W scores more
57%
level
19%
Bodø / Glimt W scores more
24%

Molde W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Molde W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Bodø / Glimt W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Molde W and Bodø / Glimt W have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DLLWW
W
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Molde W vs Bodø / Glimt W — Match Preview

Molde W face Bodø / Glimt W on October 31, 2026 in this Toppserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Molde W host Bodø / Glimt W at Aker Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.