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Mohammedan vs NEROCA — I-League 2019

Mohammedan
Mohammedan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NEROCA
NEROCA
2/3/2021I-LeagueI-League · Round 6Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Mohammedan54%
×Draw22%
NEROCA24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mohammedan
2.00
NEROCA
1.26

Mohammedan creates 59% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mohammedan
1.90
NEROCA
1.20

allows per match

Mohammedan
1.32
NEROCA
2.11

finishing

Mohammedan+0.00on par
NEROCA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohammedan ↓

NEROCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mohammedan or draw
76%
Mohammedan or NEROCA
78%
Draw or NEROCA
46%

Winning margin

Mohammedan wins by 2+
32%
NEROCA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mohammedan 1+ goals
86%
Mohammedan 2+ goals
59%
Mohammedan 3+ goals
32%
NEROCA 1+ goals
72%
NEROCA 2+ goals
36%
NEROCA 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mohammedan (draw refunded)
69%
NEROCA (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohammedan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

NEROCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohammedan attack 1.90 + NEROCA defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.00

NEROCA attack 1.20 + Mohammedan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mohammedan scores more
54%
level
22%
NEROCA scores more
24%

Mohammedan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mohammedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Mohammedan 0–0 NEROCA

Mohammedan and NEROCA drew 0-0 in I-League on February 3, 2021.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.