Moghreb Tetouan 2–1 Hassania Agadir: Result & Stats

Moghreb Tetouan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hassania Agadir

Hicham 90+2'

M. El Yousfi 17'

A. Mallouki 67'

5/30/2021

Botola Pro · Round 21Grand Stade de Tanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan41%

×Draw30%

Hassania Agadir29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moghreb TetouanExpected goals in this matchHassania Agadir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.90

Moghreb Tetouan

1.13

Hassania Agadir

0.90

Moghreb Tetouan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 119 away

1.07

creates per match

0.80

0.99

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan

1.07

Hassania Agadir

0.80

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan

0.99

Hassania Agadir

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Hassania Agadir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw

71%

Moghreb Tetouan or Hassania Agadir

70%

Draw or Hassania Agadir

59%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+

17%

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals

68%

Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals

31%

Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals

11%

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals

59%

Hassania Agadir 2+ goals

23%

Hassania Agadir 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)

59%

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.99 · 90 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.07 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hassania Agadir attack 0.80 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more

41%

level

30%

Hassania Agadir scores more

29%

Moghreb Tetouan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M. El Yousfi

23'

M. A. Ahacha Manali

31'

Y. El Houari← A. Noussir

36'

A. Lirki

42'

A. Makrane← Y. Alfahli

46'

I. Kimaoui← Y. Rami

46'

A. Azakane← A. Lirki

47'

A. Lamrabat

59'

K. Abouchaoub← A. Bassaine

67'

A. Mallouki

71'

S. Aznabet← N. El Maimouni

71'

S. Chilunda← M. El Yousfi

72'

A. Khanboubi← A. Azakane

78'

Hicham← A. Lamrabat

78'

A. El Ouardighi← T. Safsafi

90+2'

Hicham

Moghreb

Hassania

55

Houasli

4

▼

Rami

2

▼

3

13

20

22

10

▼

Lirki

23

Ech-Chamm

27

⚽

Mallouki

99

▼

Alfahli

13

Filali

28

▼

Noussir

15

▼

3

4

74

18

▼

Maimouni

24

Hassnaoui

8

▼

Safsafi

11

Kamal

88

⚽

▼

Yousfi

Manager: J. Drideb

31'▲Y. El Houari←▼A. Noussir

71'▲S. Aznabet←▼N. El Maimouni

71'▲S. Chilunda←▼M. El Yousfi

78'▲Hicham←▼A. Lamrabat

78'▲A. El Ouardighi←▼T. Safsafi

Moghreb Tetouan substitutes

77Houari6Aznabet43Chilunda20Hicham23Ouardighi1Bounaga27Gueye14Bouaadli

Manager: M. Chebil

42'▲A. Makrane←▼Y. Alfahli

46'▲I. Kimaoui←▼Y. Rami

46'▲A. Azakane←▼A. Lirki

59'▲K. Abouchaoub←▼A. Bassaine

72'▲A. Khanboubi←▼A. Azakane

Hassania Agadir substitutes

9Makrane17Kimaoui21Azakane26Abouchaoub8Khanboubi18Qamoum24Ialiouine25Ayoud88Abouzhar