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Modriča vs Ljubić Prnjavor — 1st League - RS 2019

Modriča
Modriča
FT
3 – 1
Ljubić Prnjavor
Ljubić Prnjavor
10/9/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 9Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Modriča61%
×Draw21%
Ljubić Prnjavor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modriča
1.98
Ljubić Prnjavor
0.96

Modriča creates 106% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 81 away

creates per match

Modriča
1.70
Ljubić Prnjavor
0.81

allows per match

Modriča
1.11
Ljubić Prnjavor
2.27

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par
Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Ljubić Prnjavor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Modriča or draw
82%
Modriča or Ljubić Prnjavor
79%
Draw or Ljubić Prnjavor
39%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+
37%
Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals
86%
Modriča 2+ goals
59%
Modriča 3+ goals
31%
Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals
62%
Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals
25%
Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)
77%
Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Ljubić Prnjavor away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 0.81 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Modriča scores more
61%
level
21%
Ljubić Prnjavor scores more
18%

Modriča at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modriča vs Ljubić Prnjavor

Modriča beat Ljubić Prnjavor 3-1 in 1st League - RS on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.