Modena 2–1 Sudtirol: Result & Stats | Serie B

Modena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sudtirol

L. Magnino 23'

N. Bonfanti 10'

F. Tait 54'

5/19/2023

Serie B · Round 38Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Modena42%

×Draw29%

Sudtirol29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModenaExpected goals in this matchSudtirol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.95

Modena

1.20

Sudtirol

0.95

Modena creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.16

creates per match

0.92

0.98

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Modena

1.16

Sudtirol

0.92

allows per match

Modena

0.98

Sudtirol

1.24

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Modena-0.24scores less

Sudtirol-0.32scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Sudtirol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Modena or draw

71%

Modena or Sudtirol

71%

Draw or Sudtirol

58%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+

18%

Sudtirol wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals

70%

Modena 2+ goals

34%

Modena 3+ goals

12%

Sudtirol 1+ goals

61%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

25%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)

59%

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.98 · 12 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.16 + Sudtirol defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sudtirol attack 0.92 + Modena defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Modena scores more

42%

level

29%

Sudtirol scores more

29%

Modena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

F. Tait

Sudtirol · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

Shady Oukhadda

10'

N. Bonfanti↳ D. Falcinelli

23'

L. Magnino

37'

Mirko Carretta

41'

Andrea Masiello

46'

M. Rover← D. Casiraghi

46'

J. Larrivey← S. Mazzocchi

46'

G. Lunetta← M. Carretta

54'

F. Tait

58'

D. Diaw← N. Bonfanti

58'

T. Silvestri← A. Pergreffi

65'

Andrea Seculin

70'

N. Mosti← A. Ioniţă

70'

R. Giovannini← D. Falcinelli

75'

M. Coppolaro← E. Duca

80'

L. Fiordilino← G. Lunetta

84'

M. Cissé← F. De Col

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ModenaSudtirol

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots17

4Corners6

12Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots17

4On Target5

4Off Target9

1Blocked3

3Inside Box11

6Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

476Total Passes409

378Accurate Passes321

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1