Modena 0–2 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Modena

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Palermo

N. Valente 45+2'

M. Brunori 9' (pen)

10/29/2022

Serie B · Round 11Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Modena38%

×Draw27%

Palermo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModenaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.21

Modena

1.29

Palermo

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

1.16

creates per match

1.45

0.98

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Modena

1.16

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Modena

0.98

Palermo

1.43

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Modena-0.24scores less

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Modena or draw

65%

Modena or Palermo

73%

Draw or Palermo

62%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+

17%

Palermo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals

72%

Modena 2+ goals

37%

Modena 3+ goals

14%

Palermo 1+ goals

70%

Palermo 2+ goals

34%

Palermo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)

53%

Palermo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.98 · 12 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.16 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Palermo attack 1.45 + Modena defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Modena scores more

38%

level

27%

Palermo scores more

35%

Modena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Pigliacelli

Palermo · G

8.3

Match Events

7'

Luca Magnino

9'

M. BrunoriPenalty

14'

Mladen Devetak

45+2'

N. Valente↳ F. Di Mariano

46'

E. Duca← L. Magnino

46'

R. Crivello← M. Devetak

53'

Paulo Azzi

66'

S. Panada← M. Armellino

66'

D. Marsura← D. Diaw

71'

R. Floriano← F. Di Mariano

71'

D. Šarić← J. Segre

72'

D. Bettella← N. Valente

76'

R. Giovannini← F. Gerli

76'

N. Mosti← L. Tremolada

81'

L. Štulac← C. Gomes

83'

Antonio Pergreffi

90+4'

Nicola Mosti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ModenaPalermo

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots11

6Corners2

22Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target8

3Off Target1

8Blocked2

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

469Total Passes344

396Accurate Passes270

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

22Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Serie B: Modena 0–2 Palermo

Palermo beat Modena 2-0 in Serie B on October 29, 2022.

Goals: M. Brunori (9' pen), N. Valente (45+2').

Modena controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.

Modena vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Modena 0–2 Palermo