Modena 1–3 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Modena

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Brescia

N. Bonfanti 18'

F. Bianchi 90+9' (pen)

S. Moreo 61'

F. Ayé 24'

9/10/2022

Serie B · Round 5Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Modena40%

×Draw27%

Brescia32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModenaExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.13

Modena

1.29

Brescia

1.13

Modena creates 14% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 120 away

1.30

creates per match

1.21

1.05

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Modena

1.30

Brescia

1.21

allows per match

Modena

1.05

Brescia

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modena+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Modena or draw

68%

Modena or Brescia

73%

Draw or Brescia

60%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+

18%

Brescia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals

72%

Modena 2+ goals

37%

Modena 3+ goals

14%

Brescia 1+ goals

68%

Brescia 2+ goals

31%

Brescia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)

55%

Brescia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.30 + Brescia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Brescia attack 1.21 + Modena defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Modena scores more

40%

level

27%

Brescia scores more

32%

Modena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Moreo

Brescia · M

8.5

Match Events

18'

N. Bonfanti↳ S. Panada

24'

F. Ayé↳ S. Moreo

46'

F. Karačić← A. Jallow

50'

Simone Panada

53'

Ahmed Benali← F. Viviani

61'

S. Moreo↳ F. Karačić

62'

T. Battistella← S. Panada

68'

Davide DiawPenalty cancelled

70'

V. Garofalo← J. Łabojko

71'

R. Giovannini← L. Tremolada

78'

F. Bianchi← S. Moreo

78'

P. Nuamah← F. Ayé

79'

F. Renzetti← Paulo Azzi

79'

D. Marsura← N. Bonfanti

82'

Vincenzo Garofalo

88'

Davide Diaw

90+1'

Ahmad Benali

90+9'

F. BianchiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ModenaBrescia

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots12

10Corners3

10Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots12

4On Target7

7Off Target2

1Blocked3

10Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

361Total Passes401

278Accurate Passes307

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Modena vs Brescia

Brescia beat Modena 3-1 in Serie B on September 10, 2022.

Goals: N. Bonfanti (18'), F. Ayé (24'), S. Moreo (61'), F. Bianchi (90+9' pen).

Brescia controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.

Modena vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Modena vs Brescia