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Moca vs Vega Real — Liga Mayor 2020

Moca
Moca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vega Real
Vega Real
7/2/2022Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 14Estadio Polideportivo Moca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Moca45%
×Draw28%
Vega Real27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moca
1.32
Vega Real
0.96

Moca creates 38% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 67 away

creates per match

Moca
1.22
Vega Real
0.99

allows per match

Moca
0.93
Vega Real
1.43

finishing

Moca+0.00on par
Vega Real+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moca ↓

Vega Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Moca or draw
73%
Moca or Vega Real
72%
Draw or Vega Real
55%

Winning margin

Moca wins by 2+
21%
Vega Real wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Moca 1+ goals
73%
Moca 2+ goals
38%
Moca 3+ goals
15%
Vega Real 1+ goals
62%
Vega Real 2+ goals
25%
Vega Real 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Moca (draw refunded)
62%
Vega Real (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moca at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.93 · 73 matches

Vega Real away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moca attack 1.22 + Vega Real defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Vega Real attack 0.99 + Moca defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Moca scores more
45%
level
28%
Vega Real scores more
27%

Moca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Moca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moca vs Vega Real

Moca beat Vega Real 1-0 in Liga Mayor on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Moca in Moca.