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Mladost Lucani vs Novi Pazar — Super Liga 2026

Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
Preview
16:00
Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
7/25/2026Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 2
Big match
45%
Mladost Lucani
model favours
45%26%29%

Mladost Lucani are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Mladost Lucani45%
×Draw26%
Novi Pazar29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lucani
1.48
Novi Pazar
1.13

Mladost Lucani creates 31% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 114 away

creates per match

Mladost Lucani
1.34
Novi Pazar
1.07

allows per match

Mladost Lucani
1.18
Novi Pazar
1.63

finishing

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par
Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw
71%
Mladost Lucani or Novi Pazar
74%
Draw or Novi Pazar
55%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
22%
Novi Pazar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
77%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
43%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
19%
Novi Pazar 1+ goals
68%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
31%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
61%
Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 141 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.34 + Novi Pazar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more
45%
level
26%
Novi Pazar scores more
29%

Mladost Lucani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mladost Lucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Mladost Lucani have won 4 in a row
  • Both teams score in only 27% of Mladost Lucani’s matches
  • Mladost Lucani score first in 64% of matches
  • Novi Pazar outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.1 expected)
  • Mladost Lucani fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Mladost Lucani
Direct / counter-attacking
Novi Pazar
Direct / counter-attacking
38%Possession44%
75%Pass accuracy72%
8.7Shots11.7
1.56xGBiggest gap1.10
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Mladost LucaniNovi Pazar

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Mladost Lucani
2
Draws
5
Novi Pazar
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 50%
3–10–20–11–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Lucani
WWWW
Pazar
WLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mladost Lucani host Novi Pazar

July 25, 2026: Mladost Lucani take on Novi Pazar in Super Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.