Mladost Lucani 1–0 Cukaricki: Result & Stats

Mladost Lucani

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cukaricki

3/8/2024

Super Liga · Round 24Mladost Stadium Lučani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Mladost Lucani40%

×Draw26%

Cukaricki34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost LucaniExpected goals in this matchCukaricki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.23

Mladost Lucani

1.35

Cukaricki

1.23

Mladost Lucani creates 10% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 144 away

1.34

creates per match

1.29

1.17

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Mladost Lucani

1.34

Cukaricki

1.29

allows per match

Mladost Lucani

1.17

Cukaricki

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Cukaricki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

Cukaricki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw

66%

Mladost Lucani or Cukaricki

74%

Draw or Cukaricki

60%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

18%

Cukaricki wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

74%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

39%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

15%

Cukaricki 1+ goals

71%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

35%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

54%

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 143 matches

Cukaricki away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.34 + Cukaricki defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cukaricki attack 1.29 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more

40%

level

26%

Cukaricki scores more

34%

Mladost Lucani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mladost Lucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff