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Mladost Lješkopolje vs Rudar — Second League 2019

Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rudar
Rudar
3/1/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mladost Lješkopolje43%
×Draw26%
Rudar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.46
Rudar
1.21

Mladost Lješkopolje creates 21% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

creates per match

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.46
Rudar
1.29

allows per match

Mladost Lješkopolje
1.13
Rudar
1.46

finishing

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lješkopolje ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mladost Lješkopolje or draw
69%
Mladost Lješkopolje or Rudar
74%
Draw or Rudar
57%

Winning margin

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
21%
Rudar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
77%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
43%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
18%
Rudar 1+ goals
70%
Rudar 2+ goals
34%
Rudar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
58%
Rudar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lješkopolje at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.46 + Rudar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rudar attack 1.29 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
43%
level
26%
Rudar scores more
31%

Mladost Lješkopolje at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mladost Lješkopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Mladost Lješkopolje 2–1 Rudar

Mladost Lješkopolje beat Rudar 2-1 in Second League on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at DG Arena in Podgorica.