Mladost Doboj Kakanj 0–2 Zrinjski: Result & Stats

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Zrinjski

8/31/2019

Premijer Liga · Round 7MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj22%

×Draw26%

Zrinjski52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Doboj KakanjExpected goals in this matchZrinjski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.48

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.85

Zrinjski

1.48

Zrinjski creates 74% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 109 away

1.00

creates per match

1.45

1.52

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.00

Zrinjski

1.45

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.52

Zrinjski

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Zrinjski+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Zrinjski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw

48%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Zrinjski

74%

Draw or Zrinjski

78%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

7%

Zrinjski wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

57%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

21%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

5%

Zrinjski 1+ goals

77%

Zrinjski 2+ goals

43%

Zrinjski 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

29%

Zrinjski (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Zrinjski away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.00 + Zrinjski defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Zrinjski attack 1.45 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

22%

level

26%

Zrinjski scores more

52%

Zrinjski at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zrinjski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff