Mladost DG 0–1 Jezero: Result & Stats

Mladost DG

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jezero

3/9/2024

First League · Round 24DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mladost DG39%

×Draw27%

Jezero34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost DGExpected goals in this matchJezero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.16

Mladost DG

1.27

Jezero

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 111 away

1.27

creates per match

0.91

1.41

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Mladost DG

1.27

Jezero

0.91

allows per match

Mladost DG

1.41

Jezero

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost DG+0.00on par

Jezero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost DG ↓

Jezero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mladost DG or draw

66%

Mladost DG or Jezero

73%

Draw or Jezero

61%

Winning margin

Mladost DG wins by 2+

17%

Jezero wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mladost DG 1+ goals

72%

Mladost DG 2+ goals

36%

Mladost DG 3+ goals

14%

Jezero 1+ goals

69%

Jezero 2+ goals

32%

Jezero 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mladost DG (draw refunded)

54%

Jezero (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost DG at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Jezero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.26 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost DG attack 1.27 + Jezero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Jezero attack 0.91 + Mladost DG defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mladost DG scores more

39%

level

27%

Jezero scores more

34%

Mladost DG at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mladost DG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff