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Mladost DG vs Jezero — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Mladost DG
Mladost DG
CANC
12:00
Jezero
Jezero
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mladost DG37%
×Draw23%
Jezero40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost DG
1.63
Jezero
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Mladost DG
1.25
Jezero
1.67

allows per match

Mladost DG
1.75
Jezero
2.00

finishing

Mladost DG+0.00on par
Jezero+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost DG ↓

Jezero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mladost DG or draw
60%
Mladost DG or Jezero
77%
Draw or Jezero
63%

Winning margin

Mladost DG wins by 2+
18%
Jezero wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mladost DG 1+ goals
80%
Mladost DG 2+ goals
48%
Mladost DG 3+ goals
22%
Jezero 1+ goals
82%
Jezero 2+ goals
51%
Jezero 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mladost DG (draw refunded)
48%
Jezero (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost DG at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Jezero away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost DG attack 1.25 + Jezero defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Jezero attack 1.67 + Mladost DG defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mladost DG scores more
37%
level
23%
Jezero scores more
40%

Jezero at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jezero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mladost DG vs Jezero — Match Preview

Mladost DG face Jezero on January 20, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.