Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha

Mlada Boleslav

Preview

14:00

Slavia Praha

3/20/2027

Czech Liga · Round 26Lokotrans Arena

Big match

39%

Mlada Boleslav

model favours

39%25%36%

Mlada Boleslav have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mlada Boleslav39%

×Draw25%

Slavia Praha36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mlada BoleslavExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.39

Mlada Boleslav

1.45

Slavia Praha

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

1.84

creates per match

1.62

1.16

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Mlada Boleslav

1.84

Slavia Praha

1.62

allows per match

Mlada Boleslav

1.16

Slavia Praha

1.05

-0.84scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Mlada Boleslav-0.84scores less

Slavia Praha+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mlada Boleslav ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mlada Boleslav or draw

64%

Mlada Boleslav or Slavia Praha

75%

Draw or Slavia Praha

61%

Winning margin

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+

18%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals

77%

Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals

42%

Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals

18%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

75%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

40%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)

52%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mlada Boleslav at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 7 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.84 + Slavia Praha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

Slavia Praha attack 1.62 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mlada Boleslav scores more

39%

level

25%

Slavia Praha scores more

36%

Mlada Boleslav at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mlada Boleslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Slavia Praha score first in only 32% of matches
Slavia Praha have won 9 of the last 10 meetings
73% of Slavia Praha’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Mlada Boleslav sit 11, Slavia Praha 1 in the table
Mlada Boleslav fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.7 expected)
25% of Slavia Praha’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Mlada Boleslav

Possession-dominant

Slavia Praha

Possession-dominant

54%Possession60%

78%Pass accuracy78%

10.2ShotsBiggest gap13.8

1.69xG2.24

Mlada BoleslavSlavia Praha

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0

Mlada Boleslav

1

Draws

9

Slavia Praha

Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 30%

0–41–30–10–20–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Boleslav

WWWLW

Praha

WLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff