Mlada Boleslav 0–1 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Mlada Boleslav

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slavia Praha

F. Poulolo 59' (OG)

8/13/2023

Czech Liga · Round 4Lokotrans Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mlada Boleslav38%

×Draw25%

Slavia Praha37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mlada BoleslavExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.43

Mlada Boleslav

1.46

Slavia Praha

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

1.84

creates per match

1.70

1.16

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Mlada Boleslav

1.84

Slavia Praha

1.70

allows per match

Mlada Boleslav

1.16

Slavia Praha

1.08

-0.84scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Mlada Boleslav-0.84scores less

Slavia Praha+0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mlada Boleslav ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Mlada Boleslav or draw

63%

Mlada Boleslav or Slavia Praha

75%

Draw or Slavia Praha

62%

Winning margin

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+

18%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals

77%

Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals

43%

Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals

18%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

76%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

42%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)

51%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mlada Boleslav at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 7 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.08 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.84 + Slavia Praha defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.46

Slavia Praha attack 1.70 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mlada Boleslav scores more

38%

level

25%

Slavia Praha scores more

37%

Mlada Boleslav at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mlada Boleslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Michal Tomič

44'

M. Jurásek← C. Wallem

46'

C. Zafeiris← M. Tomič

58'

M. van Buren← V. Jurečka

58'

M. Tijani← M. Chytil

59'

F. PouloloOwn goal

68'

T. Ladra← D. Mareček

69'

S. John← L. Jawo

69'

T. Holeš← L. Provod

75'

M. Pulkrab← Abdulla Yusuf Helal

75'

M. Matějovský← F. Poulolo

83'

Benson Sakala

86'

D. Šimek← A. Kadlec

90'

David Šimek

Shots

Statistics

MladaSlavia

Overview

6Total Shots12

2Corners8

16Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots12

4Off Target6

2Blocked1

Discipline

16Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0